Spread: Los Angeles Dodgers (-1.5)

Market Price

88%YES

12%NO

Vol 24h$8K

Liquidity$4K

Bid / Ask81% / 82%

Spread1.00pp

ClosedMay 3, 2026

Price History · 30 days

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Price History

MarketFM Estimate

+39.5pp

✦ Deep AI Analysis🔒 PRO

The market's precipitous 15pp decline over seven trading sessions reflects mounting uncertainty around the diplomatic timeline. Cross-venue signals show institutional venues pricing 6pp below Polymarket.

The FM model flags a structural overpricing: with less than 10 days to expiry and no confirmed diplomatic channel active, the Bayesian update pushes the model estimate well below current market price. Three correlated outcome markets collectively imply only a 23% chance any deadline resolves YES.

Watch for: official bilateral statements, foreign ministry press briefings, and whether the longer-dated outcome markets begin to converge as a leading indicator of changed expectations.

Synthesizes price, cross-venue gaps, Bayesian edge, and event context into a concise brief.

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Wikipedia Attention

Outcome Markets12 markets

12 deadline markets. Combined YES = 488% — 388pp excess suggests collective overpricing.

Los Angeles Dodgers vs. St. Louis Cardinals

100%

Spread: Los Angeles Dodgers (-2.5)

100%

Spread: Los Angeles Dodgers (-1.5)

88%

Research Summary

Prediction markets currently price "Spread: Los Angeles Dodgers (-1.5)" at 88% YES / 12% NO. In the last 24 hours, $8K has been traded. A Bayesian estimate puts the probability at 88%. The bid-ask spread is 1.00pp. The market closes on May 3, 2026.

Cite this snapshot

ForecastMind (2026-05-03). "Spread: Los Angeles Dodgers (-1.5)." Prediction market snapshot: YES 88%, NO 12%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/2141515