Markets/Will the Democrats win the New Hampshire Senate race in 2026?

Will the Democrats win the New Hampshire Senate race in 2026?

Market Price

84%YES

16%NO

FM Estimate

81%

Gap Signal

↓Overpriced

3.1pp

Vol 24h$18K

Liquidity$11K

Bid / Ask82% / 86%

Spread4.00pp

Macro fundamentals-5.8pp

Historical patterns-1.0pp

medium confidence · 2 signals

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The market's precipitous 15pp decline over seven trading sessions reflects mounting uncertainty around the diplomatic timeline. Cross-venue signals show institutional venues pricing 6pp below Polymarket.

The FM model flags a structural overpricing: with less than 10 days to expiry and no confirmed diplomatic channel active, the Bayesian update pushes the model estimate well below current market price. Three correlated outcome markets collectively imply only a 23% chance any deadline resolves YES.

Watch for: official bilateral statements, foreign ministry press briefings, and whether the longer-dated outcome markets begin to converge as a leading indicator of changed expectations.

Synthesizes price, cross-venue gaps, Bayesian edge, and event context into a concise brief.

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Wikipedia Attention

Price History · 30 days

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Price History

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Cross-Venue Intelligence2 venues

VenueProb.YES %vs Poly

Polymarket

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PredictIt

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Research Summary

Prediction markets currently price "Will the Democrats win the New Hampshire Senate race in 2026?" at 84% YES / 16% NO. In the last 24 hours, $18K has been traded. A Bayesian estimate puts the probability at 85%. The bid-ask spread is 4.00pp.

Cite this snapshot

ForecastMind (2026-04-30). "Will the Democrats win the New Hampshire Senate race in 2026?." Prediction market snapshot: YES 84%, NO 16%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/630844