Market Closed
This market has resolved and is no longer trading. Prices shown are the final recorded values.
Israel and Syria normalize relations by December 31, 2026?
Closed December 31, 2025
ForecastMind sees this -1.2pp below current market price; market at 16% may be overpriced driven by ISR positive AGR → -1.0pp avg (n=64) (low confidence — limited signal data).
Signal breakdown
Polymarket Price
Volume 24h
$4K
Liquidity
$11K
Bid / Ask
15% / 17%
Spread
2.00pp
Expert Signal
16%
Bayesian YES estimate
Research Summary
Prediction markets currently price "Israel and Syria normalize relations by December 31, 2026?" at 16% YES / 84% NO. In the last 24 hours, $4K has been traded. A Bayesian estimate puts the probability at 16%. The bid-ask spread is 2.00 percentage points. The market closes on December 31, 2025.
Cite this snapshot
ForecastMind (2026-04-09). "Israel and Syria normalize relations by December 31, 2026?." Prediction market snapshot: YES 16%, NO 84%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/677273
This event has 3 active outcome markets. Israel and Syria normalize relations before J: 31%, December 31, 2026: 16%, June 30, 2026: 6%. Implied probability of none resolving YES: ~48%.
Israel and Syria normalize relations by December 31, 20
Topic Intelligence
✦ AI Analysis
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Price History
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Order Book (YES)
Expected Value Calculator
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EV per $ wagered
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Backtest Strategy
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