Markets/Ukraine election held by December 31, 2026?

Ukraine election held by December 31, 2026?

Data as of Apr 13, 2026, 01:35 PM UTC

Closes December 31, 2026

ForecastMind Intelligence Score

Low confidence · 1 signal

25%FIS

+4ppvs market 21%

underpriced

ForecastMind sees this +3.8pp above current market price; market at 21% may be underpriced with macro signals showing GBP/USD -0.247 ↓, VIX +10.8% ↑ (low confidence — limited signal data).

Signal breakdown

MacroGBP/USD -0.247 ↓, VIX +10.8% ↑

+3.8pp

Live compute10:37 AM

Polymarket Price

20%YES

81%NO

Volume 24h

$173K

Liquidity

$20K

Bid / Ask

19% / 23%

Spread

4.00pp

Expert Signal

21%

Bayesian YES estimate

vs market+0.0pp

confidence21%

methodensemble

Research Summary

Prediction markets currently price "Ukraine election held by December 31, 2026?" at 20% YES / 80% NO. In the last 24 hours, $173K has been traded. A Bayesian estimate puts the probability at 21%. The bid-ask spread is 4.00 percentage points. The market closes on December 31, 2026.

Cite this snapshot

ForecastMind (2026-04-13). "Ukraine election held by December 31, 2026?." Prediction market snapshot: YES 20%, NO 80%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/677358

Outcome Markets3 markets

This event has 3 active outcome markets. December 31, 2026: 20%, June 30, 2026: 9%, June 30, 2026: 4%. Implied probability of none resolving YES: ~69%.