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Markets/Will Cory Booker announce a Presidential run before 2027?
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Will Cory Booker announce a Presidential run before 2027?

Closes December 31, 2026

ForecastMind Intelligence Score
Low confidence · 2 signals
12%FIS
+1ppvs market 11%
underpriced

ForecastMind sees this +0.9pp above current market price; market at 11% may be underpriced with macro signals showing VIX +2.4% ↑, S&P -0.2% ↓ (low confidence — limited signal data).

Signal breakdown

MacroVIX +2.4% ↑, S&P -0.2% ↓
+3.5pp
HistoryUSA very_negative CVL → -1.0pp avg (n=74) [recent event]
-1.0pp
Live compute08:42 AM

Polymarket Price

11%YES
89%NO

Volume 24h

$10K

Liquidity

$9K

Bid / Ask

10% / 12%

Spread

1.80pp

Expert Signal

11%

Bayesian YES estimate

vs market+0.0pp
confidence21%
methodensemble

Research Summary

Prediction markets currently price "Will Cory Booker announce a Presidential run before 2027?" at 11% YES / 89% NO. In the last 24 hours, $10K has been traded. A Bayesian estimate puts the probability at 11%. The bid-ask spread is 1.80 percentage points. The market closes on December 31, 2026.

Cite this snapshot

ForecastMind (2026-04-09). "Will Cory Booker announce a Presidential run before 2027?." Prediction market snapshot: YES 11%, NO 89%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/692272

Topic Intelligence

✦ AI Analysis

Synthesizes price, cross-venue gaps, Bayesian edge, and event context into a concise brief.

Price History

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Price History

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Order Book (YES)

Expected Value Calculator

%
1%Market: YES 11%99%
Buy YES@ 11¢

-0.5%

EV per $ wagered

Buy NO@ 89¢
Edge

+0.1%

EV per $ wagered

Full Kelly0.5%
½ Kelly0.2%
Buy NO—+0.1% EV per dollar wagered·Kelly 0.5%

EV = return on investment if your probability is correct. Kelly = optimal bankroll fraction (½ Kelly is a common conservative choice). Fees not included.

Backtest Strategy

50%

Enter when YES price ≤ this