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Markets/Will Robert F. Kennedy Jr. announce a presidential run before 2027?
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Will Robert F. Kennedy Jr. announce a presidential run before 2027?

Closes December 31, 2026

ForecastMind Intelligence Score
Low confidence
8%FIS
vs
10%Market
overpriced 1.5pp
2 signals
Key Drivers
⊙
MacroVIX -2.7% ↓, S&P +1.0% ↑, DXY +0.2% ↑
-2.2pp43%
◎
HistoryUSA very_negative CVL → -1.0pp avg (n=74) [recent event]
n=74 historical instances
-1.0pp57%

ForecastMind sees this -1.5pp below current market price; market at 10% may be overpriced with macro signals showing VIX -2.7% ↓, S&P +1.0% ↑, DXY +0.2% ↑ (low confidence — limited signal data).

Live compute01:33 PM

Polymarket Price

10%YES
91%NO

Volume 24h

$10

Liquidity

$15K

Bid / Ask

9% / 10%

Spread

1.00pp

Expert Signal

10%

Bayesian YES estimate

vs market+0.0pp
confidence21%
methodensemble

Research Summary

Prediction markets currently price "Will Robert F. Kennedy Jr. announce a presidential run before 2027?" at 10% YES / 90% NO. In the last 24 hours, $10 has been traded. A Bayesian estimate puts the probability at 10%. The bid-ask spread is 1.00 percentage points. The market closes on December 31, 2026.

Cite this snapshot

ForecastMind (2026-04-05). "Will Robert F. Kennedy Jr. announce a presidential run before 2027?." Prediction market snapshot: YES 10%, NO 90%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/692321

Topic Intelligence

✦ AI Analysis

Synthesizes price, cross-venue gaps, Bayesian edge, and event context into a concise brief.

Price History

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Price History

No historical data yet

Order Book (YES)

Expected Value Calculator

%
1%Market: YES 10%99%
Buy YES@ 10¢
Edge

+5.3%

EV per $ wagered

Full Kelly0.6%
½ Kelly0.3%
Buy NO@ 91¢

-0.6%

EV per $ wagered

Buy YES—+5.3% EV per dollar wagered·Kelly 0.6%

EV = return on investment if your probability is correct. Kelly = optimal bankroll fraction (½ Kelly is a common conservative choice). Fees not included.

Backtest Strategy

50%

Enter when YES price ≤ this