Markets/Will Chris Rabb be the Democratic nominee for PA-03?

Will Chris Rabb be the Democratic nominee for PA-03?

Market Price

49%YES

51%NO

FM Estimate

47%

Vol 24h$725

Liquidity$21K

Bid / Ask47% / 52%

Spread4.40pp

ClosesMay 19, 2026

Macro fundamentals-3.0pp

Historical patterns-1.0pp

low confidence · 2 signals

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The market's precipitous 15pp decline over seven trading sessions reflects mounting uncertainty around the diplomatic timeline. Cross-venue signals show institutional venues pricing 6pp below Polymarket.

The FM model flags a structural overpricing: with less than 10 days to expiry and no confirmed diplomatic channel active, the Bayesian update pushes the model estimate well below current market price. Three correlated outcome markets collectively imply only a 23% chance any deadline resolves YES.

Watch for: official bilateral statements, foreign ministry press briefings, and whether the longer-dated outcome markets begin to converge as a leading indicator of changed expectations.

Synthesizes price, cross-venue gaps, Bayesian edge, and event context into a concise brief.

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Outcome Markets4 markets

4 deadline markets, spanning the full probability space.

Chris Rabb be the Democratic nominee for PA-0

Chris Rabb be the Democratic nominee for PA-03

49%

Sharif Street be the Democratic nominee for P

Sharif Street be the Democratic nominee for PA-03

35%

Ala Stanford be the Democratic nominee for PA

Ala Stanford be the Democratic nominee for PA-03

15%

Price History · 30 days

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Price History

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Research Summary

Prediction markets currently price "Will Chris Rabb be the Democratic nominee for PA-03?" at 49% YES / 51% NO. In the last 24 hours, $725 has been traded. A Bayesian estimate puts the probability at 48%. The bid-ask spread is 4.40pp. The market closes on May 19, 2026.

Cite this snapshot

ForecastMind (2026-05-01). "Will Chris Rabb be the Democratic nominee for PA-03?." Prediction market snapshot: YES 49%, NO 51%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/704193