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Will Coalition Avenir Québec win the most seats in the 2026 Quebec general election?

8%YES
92%NO
Vol 24h$1K
Liquidity$18K
Bid / Ask7% / 9%
Spread2.00pp
ClosesOct 5, 2026

FM Estimate

6%

Market Price

8%
↑ Overpriced 2.5pp
Macro fundamentals-4.5pp
Historical patterns-1.0pp
medium confidence · 2 signals

Wikipedia Attention

Outcome Markets5 markets

This event has 5 active outcome markets. Parti libéral du Québec: 38%, Coalition Avenir Québec: 8%, Parti conservateur du Québec: 1%. Implied probability of none resolving YES: ~54%.

Price History · 30 days

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Price History

+0.0pp

✦ AI Analysis

Synthesizes price, cross-venue gaps, Bayesian edge, and event context into a concise brief.

Research Summary

Prediction markets currently price "Will Coalition Avenir Québec win the most seats in the 2026 Quebec general election?" at 8% YES / 92% NO. In the last 24 hours, $1K has been traded. A Bayesian estimate puts the probability at 8%. The bid-ask spread is 2.00pp. The market closes on October 5, 2026.

Cite this snapshot

ForecastMind (2026-04-17). "Will Coalition Avenir Québec win the most seats in the 2026 Quebec general election?." Prediction market snapshot: YES 8%, NO 92%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/789406