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Markets/Will Burt Jones win the 2026 Georgia Governor Republican primary election?
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Will Burt Jones win the 2026 Georgia Governor Republican primary election?

Closes May 19, 2026

ForecastMind Intelligence Score
Medium confidence · 2 signals
22%FIS
2ppvs market 24%
overpriced

ForecastMind sees this -2.2pp below current market price; market at 24% may be overpriced with macro signals showing VIX -20.7% ↓, S&P +0.3% ↑, DXY -0.1% ↓.

Signal breakdown

MacroVIX -20.7% ↓, S&P +0.3% ↑, DXY -0.1% ↓
-3.7pp
HistoryUSA very_negative CVL → -1.0pp avg (n=74) [recent event]
-1.0pp
Live compute10:02 AM

Polymarket Price

24%YES
76%NO

Volume 24h

$1K

Liquidity

$15K

Bid / Ask

23% / 25%

Spread

2.00pp

Expert Signal

24%

Bayesian YES estimate

vs market+0.0pp
confidence21%
methodensemble

Research Summary

Prediction markets currently price "Will Burt Jones win the 2026 Georgia Governor Republican primary election?" at 24% YES / 76% NO. In the last 24 hours, $1K has been traded. A Bayesian estimate puts the probability at 24%. The bid-ask spread is 2.00 percentage points. The market closes on May 19, 2026.

Cite this snapshot

ForecastMind (2026-04-08). "Will Burt Jones win the 2026 Georgia Governor Republican primary election?." Prediction market snapshot: YES 24%, NO 76%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/837728

✦ AI Analysis

Synthesizes price, cross-venue gaps, Bayesian edge, and event context into a concise brief.

Price History

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Order Book (YES)

Expected Value Calculator

%
1%Market: YES 24%99%
Buy YES@ 24¢

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EV per $ wagered

Buy NO@ 76¢

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EV per $ wagered

Your estimate matches the market price — no edge on either side.

EV = return on investment if your probability is correct. Kelly = optimal bankroll fraction (½ Kelly is a common conservative choice). Fees not included.

Backtest Strategy

50%

Enter when YES price ≤ this