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Markets/Will Geoff Duncan win the 2026 Georgia Governor Democratic primary election?
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Will Geoff Duncan win the 2026 Georgia Governor Democratic primary election?

Closes May 19, 2026

ForecastMind Intelligence Score
Low confidence · 2 signals
5%FIS
−1ppvs market 6%
overpriced

ForecastMind sees this -1.3pp below current market price; market at 6% may be overpriced with macro signals showing VIX -2.7% ↓, S&P +0.2% ↑, DXY +0.1% ↑ (low confidence — limited signal data).

Signal breakdown

MacroVIX -2.7% ↓, S&P +0.2% ↑, DXY +0.1% ↑
-1.8pp
HistoryUSA very_negative CVL → -1.0pp avg (n=74) [recent event]
-1.0pp
Live compute04:44 AM

Polymarket Price

6%YES
94%NO

Volume 24h

$20

Liquidity

$25K

Bid / Ask

5% / 7%

Spread

2.00pp

Expert Signal

6%

Bayesian YES estimate

vs market+0.0pp
confidence21%
methodensemble

Research Summary

Prediction markets currently price "Will Geoff Duncan win the 2026 Georgia Governor Democratic primary election?" at 6% YES / 94% NO. In the last 24 hours, $20 has been traded. A Bayesian estimate puts the probability at 6%. The bid-ask spread is 2.00 percentage points. The market closes on May 19, 2026.

Cite this snapshot

ForecastMind (2026-04-06). "Will Geoff Duncan win the 2026 Georgia Governor Democratic primary election?." Prediction market snapshot: YES 6%, NO 94%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/837768

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Price History

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Order Book (YES)

Expected Value Calculator

%
1%Market: YES 6%99%
Buy YES@ 6¢

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EV per $ wagered

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Backtest Strategy

50%

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