Markets/Will Nancy Mace win the 2026 South Carolina Governor Republican primary election?

Will Nancy Mace win the 2026 South Carolina Governor Republican primary election?

Market Price

22%YES

78%NO

FM Estimate

21%

Vol 24h$1K

Liquidity$16K

Bid / Ask19% / 24%

Spread5.00pp

ClosesJun 9, 2026

Historical patterns-1.0pp

Macro fundamentals+1.0pp

low confidence · 2 signals

Why this mattersAI-synthesized

Nancy Mace's chances of winning the 2026 South Carolina Republican gubernatorial primary are currently priced at 21% on Polymarket. This low implied probability suggests significant headwinds for her candidacy. The S&P 500 futures, VIX, and DXY are not presently offering direct signals impacting this specific political prediction market. Collective market intelligence indicates traders anticipate a challenging path for Mace in securing the nomination.

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The market's precipitous 15pp decline over seven trading sessions reflects mounting uncertainty around the diplomatic timeline. Cross-venue signals show institutional venues pricing 6pp below Polymarket.

The FM model flags a structural overpricing: with less than 10 days to expiry and no confirmed diplomatic channel active, the Bayesian update pushes the model estimate well below current market price. Three correlated outcome markets collectively imply only a 23% chance any deadline resolves YES.

Watch for: official bilateral statements, foreign ministry press briefings, and whether the longer-dated outcome markets begin to converge as a leading indicator of changed expectations.

Synthesizes price, cross-venue gaps, Bayesian edge, and event context into a concise brief.

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Wikipedia Attention

Outcome Markets5 markets

5 deadline markets, spanning the full probability space.

Pamela Evette

Pamela Evette win the 2026 South Carolina Governor R

34%

Alan Wilson

Alan Wilson win the 2026 South Carolina Governor Rep

32%

Nancy Mace

Nancy Mace win the 2026 South Carolina Governor Repu

22%

Price History · 30 days

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Price History

No historical data yet

Cross-Venue Intelligence2 venues

VenueProb.YES %vs Poly

Polymarket

21%anchor

PredictIt

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Research Summary

Prediction markets currently price "Will Nancy Mace win the 2026 South Carolina Governor Republican primary election?" at 22% YES / 78% NO. In the last 24 hours, $1K has been traded. A Bayesian estimate puts the probability at 20%. The bid-ask spread is 5.00pp. The market closes on June 9, 2026.

Cite this snapshot

ForecastMind (2026-05-03). "Will Nancy Mace win the 2026 South Carolina Governor Republican primary election?." Prediction market snapshot: YES 22%, NO 78%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/906947