Markets/Will Mike Pieciak win the 2026 Vermont Governor Democratic primary election?

Will Mike Pieciak win the 2026 Vermont Governor Democratic primary election?

Market Price

7%YES

93%NO

FM Estimate

Gap Signal

↓Overpriced

2.4pp

Vol 24h$5K

Liquidity$2K

Bid / Ask3% / 11%

Spread8.00pp

ClosesAug 11, 2026

Macro fundamentals-4.3pp

Historical patterns-1.0pp

medium confidence · 2 signals

✦ Deep AI Analysis🔒 PRO

The market's precipitous 15pp decline over seven trading sessions reflects mounting uncertainty around the diplomatic timeline. Cross-venue signals show institutional venues pricing 6pp below Polymarket.

The FM model flags a structural overpricing: with less than 10 days to expiry and no confirmed diplomatic channel active, the Bayesian update pushes the model estimate well below current market price. Three correlated outcome markets collectively imply only a 23% chance any deadline resolves YES.

Watch for: official bilateral statements, foreign ministry press briefings, and whether the longer-dated outcome markets begin to converge as a leading indicator of changed expectations.

Synthesizes price, cross-venue gaps, Bayesian edge, and event context into a concise brief.

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Wikipedia Attention

Price History · 30 days

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Price History

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Cross-Venue Intelligence2 venues

VenueProb.YES %vs Poly

Polymarket

—anchor

Kalshi

43%—

Research Summary

Prediction markets currently price "Will Mike Pieciak win the 2026 Vermont Governor Democratic primary election?" at 7% YES / 93% NO. In the last 24 hours, $5K has been traded. A Bayesian estimate puts the probability at 7%. The bid-ask spread is 8.00pp. The market closes on August 11, 2026.

Cite this snapshot

ForecastMind (2026-04-30). "Will Mike Pieciak win the 2026 Vermont Governor Democratic primary election?." Prediction market snapshot: YES 7%, NO 93%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/907476