Markets/Will Scottish National Party win the most seats in the 2026 Scottish Parliament election?

Will Scottish National Party win the most seats in the 2026 Scottish Parliament election?

Market Price

100%YES

0%NO

FM Estimate

99%

Vol 24h$1K

Liquidity$21K

Bid / Ask100% / 100%

Spread0.20pp

ClosesMay 7, 2026

Why this matters

Prediction markets price this at 100% — a strong consensus in favor. Related markets: Will CD win the third most seats in the 2026 Colombian Chamb at 1%, Will CA Osasuna win on 2026-04-05? at 0%, Will Kosovo win on 2026-03-31? at 0%. $1K traded in the last 24 hours reflects active interest from market participants. Market closes in 1 day.

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The market's precipitous 15pp decline over seven trading sessions reflects mounting uncertainty around the diplomatic timeline. Cross-venue signals show institutional venues pricing 6pp below Polymarket.

The FM model flags a structural overpricing: with less than 10 days to expiry and no confirmed diplomatic channel active, the Bayesian update pushes the model estimate well below current market price. Three correlated outcome markets collectively imply only a 23% chance any deadline resolves YES.

Watch for: official bilateral statements, foreign ministry press briefings, and whether the longer-dated outcome markets begin to converge as a leading indicator of changed expectations.

Synthesizes price, cross-venue gaps, Bayesian edge, and event context into a concise brief.

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Wikipedia Attention

Outcome Markets18 markets

18 deadline markets. Combined YES = 322% — 222pp excess suggests collective overpricing.

Scottish National Party

Scottish National Party win the most seats in the 20

100%

the Swedish Social Democratic Party

Swedish Social Democratic Party (S) win the most sea

91%

Labour Party

Labour Party win the most seats in the House of Repr

83%

Price History · 30 days

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Price History

MarketFM Estimate

+1.1pp

Research Summary

Prediction markets currently price "Will Scottish National Party win the most seats in the 2026 Scottish Parliament election?" at 100% YES / 0% NO. In the last 24 hours, $1K has been traded. A Bayesian estimate puts the probability at 98%. The bid-ask spread is 0.20pp. The market closes on May 7, 2026.

Cite this snapshot

ForecastMind (2026-05-05). "Will Scottish National Party win the most seats in the 2026 Scottish Parliament election?." Prediction market snapshot: YES 100%, NO 0%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/922766