Will the All India Trinamool Congress (AITC) win the most seats in the 2026 West Bengal Legislative Assembly election?
Closes April 29, 2026
ForecastMind sees this -2.2pp below current market price; market at 49% may be overpriced with macro signals showing VIX -4.5% ↓, S&P +0.2% ↑, DXY -0.3% ↓.
Signal breakdown
Polymarket Price
Volume 24h
$8K
Liquidity
$17K
Bid / Ask
48% / 50%
Spread
1.70pp
Expert Signal
49%
Bayesian YES estimate
Research Summary
Prediction markets currently price "Will the All India Trinamool Congress (AITC) win the most seats in the 2026 West Bengal Legislative Assembly election?" at 51% YES / 49% NO. In the last 24 hours, $8K has been traded. A Bayesian estimate puts the probability at 49%. The bid-ask spread is 1.70 percentage points. The market closes on April 29, 2026.
Cite this snapshot
ForecastMind (2026-04-14). "Will the All India Trinamool Congress (AITC) win the most seats in the 2026 West Bengal Legislative Assembly election?." Prediction market snapshot: YES 51%, NO 49%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/951182
This event has 7 active outcome markets. the All India Trinamool Congress (AITC): 51%, the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP): 50%, the Bharatiya Gorkha Prajatantrik Morcha (BGPM): 0%.
All India Trinamool Congress (AITC) win the most seats
Topic Intelligence
✦ AI Analysis
Synthesizes price, cross-venue gaps, Bayesian edge, and event context into a concise brief.
Price History
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Key Moments
First recorded
47% YES
Apr 14, 2026
Current
49% YES (+0.4pp recent)
Apr 14, 2026
Order Book (YES)
Expected Value Calculator
-0.9%
EV per $ wagered
+0.9%
EV per $ wagered
EV = return on investment if your probability is correct. Kelly = optimal bankroll fraction (½ Kelly is a common conservative choice). Fees not included.
Backtest Strategy
Enter when YES price ≤ this