Markets/Will Oscar Romero be the Democratic Nominee for NY-13?

Will Oscar Romero be the Democratic Nominee for NY-13?

Market Price

4%YES

96%NO

FM Estimate

Vol 24h$4K

Liquidity$21K

Bid / Ask4% / 4%

Spread0.40pp

ClosesJun 23, 2026

Macro fundamentals+3.0pp

Historical patterns-1.0pp

low confidence · 2 signals

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The market's precipitous 15pp decline over seven trading sessions reflects mounting uncertainty around the diplomatic timeline. Cross-venue signals show institutional venues pricing 6pp below Polymarket.

The FM model flags a structural overpricing: with less than 10 days to expiry and no confirmed diplomatic channel active, the Bayesian update pushes the model estimate well below current market price. Three correlated outcome markets collectively imply only a 23% chance any deadline resolves YES.

Watch for: official bilateral statements, foreign ministry press briefings, and whether the longer-dated outcome markets begin to converge as a leading indicator of changed expectations.

Synthesizes price, cross-venue gaps, Bayesian edge, and event context into a concise brief.

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Price History · 30 days

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Research Summary

Prediction markets currently price "Will Oscar Romero be the Democratic Nominee for NY-13?" at 4% YES / 96% NO. In the last 24 hours, $4K has been traded. A Bayesian estimate puts the probability at 4%. The bid-ask spread is 0.40pp. The market closes on June 23, 2026.

Cite this snapshot

ForecastMind (2026-04-23). "Will Oscar Romero be the Democratic Nominee for NY-13?." Prediction market snapshot: YES 4%, NO 96%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/973446