ForecastMind
Markets/Opensea FDV above $1B one day after launch?
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Opensea FDV above $1B one day after launch?

Closes January 1, 2027

Polymarket Price

14%YES
86%NO

Volume 24h

$1K

Liquidity

$36K

Bid / Ask

14% / 15%

Spread

1.00pp

Expert Signal

14%

Bayesian YES estimate

vs market+0.0pp
confidence21%
methodensemble

Research Summary

Prediction markets currently price "Opensea FDV above $1B one day after launch?" at 14% YES / 86% NO. In the last 24 hours, $1K has been traded. A Bayesian estimate puts the probability at 14%. The bid-ask spread is 1.00 percentage points. The market closes on January 1, 2027.

Cite this snapshot

ForecastMind (2026-03-31). "Opensea FDV above $1B one day after launch?." Prediction market snapshot: YES 14%, NO 86%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/618455

✦ AI Analysis

Synthesizes price, cross-venue gaps, Bayesian edge, and event context into a concise brief.

Price History

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Price History

-6.5pp

Key Moments

First recorded

25% YES

Mar 10, 2026

Trough probability

17% YES — lowest in period

Mar 16, 2026

Biggest move: -9.5pp

26% → 17%

Mar 16, 2026

Current

19% YES (+0.0pp recent)

Mar 17, 2026

Order Book (YES)

Expected Value Calculator

%
1%Market: YES 14%99%
Buy YES@ 14¢

-3.4%

EV per $ wagered

Buy NO@ 86¢
Edge

+0.6%

EV per $ wagered

Full Kelly3.4%
½ Kelly1.7%
Buy NO—+0.6% EV per dollar wagered·Kelly 3.4%

EV = return on investment if your probability is correct. Kelly = optimal bankroll fraction (½ Kelly is a common conservative choice). Fees not included.

Backtest Strategy

50%

Enter when YES price ≤ this