ForecastMind
⊘

Market Closed

This market has resolved and is no longer trading. Prices shown are the final recorded values.

Markets/Spread: Sabres (-1.5)
Share on X

Spread: Sabres (-1.5)

Closed March 27, 2026

Polymarket Price

9%YES
92%NO

Volume 24h

$12K

Liquidity

$8K

Expert Signal

2%

Bayesian YES estimate

vs market+100.0pp
confidence21%
methodensemble

Research Summary

Prediction markets currently price "Spread: Sabres (-1.5)" at 9% YES / 91% NO. In the last 24 hours, $12K has been traded. A Bayesian estimate puts the probability at 2%. The market closes on March 27, 2026.

Cite this snapshot

ForecastMind (2026-03-31). "Spread: Sabres (-1.5)." Prediction market snapshot: YES 9%, NO 91%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/1731888

✦ AI Analysis

Synthesizes price, cross-venue gaps, Bayesian edge, and event context into a concise brief.

Price History

Export CSV

Price History

-35.4pp

Key Moments

First recorded

36% YES

Mar 27, 2026

Trough probability

0% YES — lowest in period

Mar 28, 2026

Biggest move: -26.0pp

34% → 8%

Mar 28, 2026

Current

0% YES (+0.0pp recent)

Mar 28, 2026

Order Book (YES)

Expected Value Calculator

%
1%Market: YES 9%99%
Buy YES@ 9¢
Edge

+5.9%

EV per $ wagered

Full Kelly0.5%
½ Kelly0.3%
Buy NO@ 92¢

-0.5%

EV per $ wagered

Buy YES—+5.9% EV per dollar wagered·Kelly 0.5%

EV = return on investment if your probability is correct. Kelly = optimal bankroll fraction (½ Kelly is a common conservative choice). Fees not included.

Backtest Strategy

50%

Enter when YES price ≤ this