ForecastMind
Markets/USD.AI FDV above $300M one day after launch?
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USD.AI FDV above $300M one day after launch?

Closes January 1, 2027

Polymarket Price

19%YES
81%NO

Volume 24h

$2K

Liquidity

$15K

Bid / Ask

18% / 19%

Spread

1.20pp

Expert Signal

19%

Bayesian YES estimate

vs market+0.0pp
confidence21%
methodensemble

Research Summary

Prediction markets currently price "USD.AI FDV above $300M one day after launch?" at 19% YES / 81% NO. In the last 24 hours, $2K has been traded. A Bayesian estimate puts the probability at 19%. The bid-ask spread is 1.20 percentage points. The market closes on January 1, 2027.

Cite this snapshot

ForecastMind (2026-03-31). "USD.AI FDV above $300M one day after launch?." Prediction market snapshot: YES 19%, NO 81%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/690622

✦ AI Analysis

Synthesizes price, cross-venue gaps, Bayesian edge, and event context into a concise brief.

Price History

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Price History

+1.4pp

Key Moments

First recorded

24% YES

Mar 26, 2026

Current

26% YES (+0.2pp recent)

Mar 27, 2026

Order Book (YES)

Expected Value Calculator

%
1%Market: YES 19%99%
Buy YES@ 19¢
Edge

+1.6%

EV per $ wagered

Full Kelly0.4%
½ Kelly0.2%
Buy NO@ 81¢

-0.4%

EV per $ wagered

Buy YES+1.6% EV per dollar wagered·Kelly 0.4%

EV = return on investment if your probability is correct. Kelly = optimal bankroll fraction (½ Kelly is a common conservative choice). Fees not included.

Backtest Strategy

50%

Enter when YES price ≤ this