Will Israel strike 5 countries in 2026?
Closes December 31, 2026
Polymarket Price
Volume 24h
$694
Liquidity
$11K
Bid / Ask
31% / 32%
Spread
0.70pp
Expert Signal
32%
Bayesian YES estimate
Research Summary
Prediction markets currently price "Will Israel strike 5 countries in 2026?" at 32% YES / 68% NO. In the last 24 hours, $694 has been traded. A Bayesian estimate puts the probability at 32%. The bid-ask spread is 0.70 percentage points. The market closes on December 31, 2026.
Cite this snapshot
ForecastMind (2026-04-01). "Will Israel strike 5 countries in 2026?." Prediction market snapshot: YES 32%, NO 68%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/678748
This event has 16 active outcome markets. June 30, 2026: 85%, May 31, 2026: 83%, April 30, 2026: 69%.
Israel strike 5 countries in 2026?
Topic Intelligence
✦ AI Analysis
Synthesizes price, cross-venue gaps, Bayesian edge, and event context into a concise brief.
Price History
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Key Moments
First recorded
22% YES
Mar 3, 2026
Trough probability
9% YES — lowest in period
Mar 18, 2026
Biggest move: +15.8pp
13% → 28%
Mar 23, 2026
Peak probability
36% YES — highest in period
Mar 28, 2026
Current
32% YES (+2.1pp recent)
Apr 1, 2026
Order Book (YES)
Expected Value Calculator
+0.8%
EV per $ wagered
-0.4%
EV per $ wagered
EV = return on investment if your probability is correct. Kelly = optimal bankroll fraction (½ Kelly is a common conservative choice). Fees not included.
Backtest Strategy
Enter when YES price ≤ this