Will Kevin Spacey be confirmed to have visited Epstein’s island?
Closes June 30, 2026
Polymarket Price
Volume 24h
$707
Liquidity
$21K
Bid / Ask
16% / 18%
Spread
2.00pp
Expert Signal
17%
Bayesian YES estimate
Research Summary
Prediction markets currently price "Will Kevin Spacey be confirmed to have visited Epstein’s island?" at 17% YES / 83% NO. In the last 24 hours, $707 has been traded. A Bayesian estimate puts the probability at 17%. The bid-ask spread is 2.00 percentage points. The market closes on June 30, 2026.
Cite this snapshot
ForecastMind (2026-04-01). "Will Kevin Spacey be confirmed to have visited Epstein’s island?." Prediction market snapshot: YES 17%, NO 83%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/1370727
Topic Intelligence
✦ AI Analysis
Synthesizes price, cross-venue gaps, Bayesian edge, and event context into a concise brief.
Price History
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Key Moments
First recorded
35% YES
Mar 30, 2026
Trough probability
17% YES — lowest in period
Mar 31, 2026
Biggest move: -13.5pp
36% → 22%
Mar 30, 2026
Current
19% YES (+0.0pp recent)
Mar 31, 2026
Order Book (YES)
Expected Value Calculator
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EV per $ wagered
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EV per $ wagered
EV = return on investment if your probability is correct. Kelly = optimal bankroll fraction (½ Kelly is a common conservative choice). Fees not included.
Backtest Strategy
Enter when YES price ≤ this