ForecastMind
Markets/Will Microsoft be the largest company in the world by market cap on April 30?
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Will Microsoft be the largest company in the world by market cap on April 30?

Closes April 30, 2026

Polymarket Price

0%YES
100%NO

Volume 24h

$7K

Liquidity

$44K

Bid / Ask

0% / 0%

Spread

0.20pp

Expert Signal

2%

Bayesian YES estimate

vs market+100.0pp
confidence21%
methodensemble

Research Summary

Prediction markets currently price "Will Microsoft be the largest company in the world by market cap on April 30?" at 0% YES / 100% NO. In the last 24 hours, $7K has been traded. A Bayesian estimate puts the probability at 2%. The bid-ask spread is 0.20 percentage points. The market closes on April 30, 2026.

Cite this snapshot

ForecastMind (2026-03-31). "Will Microsoft be the largest company in the world by market cap on April 30?." Prediction market snapshot: YES 0%, NO 100%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/1487055

✦ AI Analysis

Synthesizes price, cross-venue gaps, Bayesian edge, and event context into a concise brief.

Price History

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Price History

-0.9pp

Key Moments

First recorded

1% YES

Mar 16, 2026

Current

0% YES (+0.0pp recent)

Mar 31, 2026

Order Book (YES)

Expected Value Calculator

%
1%Market: YES 1%99%
Buy YES@ 1¢

+0.0%

EV per $ wagered

Buy NO@ 99¢

+0.0%

EV per $ wagered

Your estimate matches the market price — no edge on either side.

EV = return on investment if your probability is correct. Kelly = optimal bankroll fraction (½ Kelly is a common conservative choice). Fees not included.

Backtest Strategy

50%

Enter when YES price ≤ this