Will Mohammad-Bagher Ghalibaf be head of state in Iran end of 2026?
Closes December 31, 2026
Polymarket Price
Volume 24h
$2K
Liquidity
$11K
Bid / Ask
5% / 5%
Spread
0.40pp
Expert Signal
5%
Bayesian YES estimate
Research Summary
Prediction markets currently price "Will Mohammad-Bagher Ghalibaf be head of state in Iran end of 2026?" at 5% YES / 95% NO. In the last 24 hours, $2K has been traded. A Bayesian estimate puts the probability at 5%. The bid-ask spread is 0.40 percentage points. The market closes on December 31, 2026.
Cite this snapshot
ForecastMind (2026-04-01). "Will Mohammad-Bagher Ghalibaf be head of state in Iran end of 2026?." Prediction market snapshot: YES 5%, NO 95%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/1469766
This event has 30 active outcome markets. Mojtaba Khamenei be head of state in Iran end: 63%, Reza Pahlavi be head of state in Iran end of : 12%, Mohammad-Bagher Ghalibaf be head of state in : 5%.
Mohammad-Bagher Ghalibaf be head of state in Iran end o
Topic Intelligence
✦ AI Analysis
Synthesizes price, cross-venue gaps, Bayesian edge, and event context into a concise brief.
Price History
Export CSVPrice History
Key Moments
First recorded
3% YES
Mar 24, 2026
Biggest move: +7.6pp
3% → 10%
Mar 24, 2026
Peak probability
11% YES — highest in period
Mar 27, 2026
Current
5% YES (-0.1pp recent)
Apr 1, 2026
Order Book (YES)
Expected Value Calculator
-1.0%
EV per $ wagered
+0.1%
EV per $ wagered
EV = return on investment if your probability is correct. Kelly = optimal bankroll fraction (½ Kelly is a common conservative choice). Fees not included.
Backtest Strategy
Enter when YES price ≤ this