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Markets/Will OpenAI’s market cap be between $1T and $1.25T at market close on IPO day by December 31, 2027?
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Will OpenAI’s market cap be between $1T and $1.25T at market close on IPO day by December 31, 2027?

Closes December 31, 2027

Polymarket Price

18%YES
82%NO

Volume 24h

$3K

Liquidity

$5K

Bid / Ask

9% / 27%

Spread

18.00pp

Expert Signal

18%

Bayesian YES estimate

vs market+0.0pp
confidence21%
methodensemble

Research Summary

Prediction markets currently price "Will OpenAI’s market cap be between $1T and $1.25T at market close on IPO day by December 31, 2027?" at 18% YES / 82% NO. In the last 24 hours, $3K has been traded. A Bayesian estimate puts the probability at 18%. The bid-ask spread is 18.00 percentage points. The market closes on December 31, 2027.

Cite this snapshot

ForecastMind (2026-03-31). "Will OpenAI’s market cap be between $1T and $1.25T at market close on IPO day by December 31, 2027?." Prediction market snapshot: YES 18%, NO 82%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/1345232

✦ AI Analysis

Synthesizes price, cross-venue gaps, Bayesian edge, and event context into a concise brief.

Price History

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Price History

+1.0pp

Key Moments

First recorded

16% YES

Mar 28, 2026

Biggest move: -5.5pp

24% → 18%

Mar 28, 2026

Peak probability

24% YES — highest in period

Mar 28, 2026

Current

17% YES (-4.5pp recent)

Mar 29, 2026

Order Book (YES)

Expected Value Calculator

%
1%Market: YES 18%99%
Buy YES@ 18¢

+0.0%

EV per $ wagered

Buy NO@ 82¢

+0.0%

EV per $ wagered

Your estimate matches the market price — no edge on either side.

EV = return on investment if your probability is correct. Kelly = optimal bankroll fraction (½ Kelly is a common conservative choice). Fees not included.

Backtest Strategy

50%

Enter when YES price ≤ this