ForecastMind
Markets/Will Perplexity’s market cap be between $50B and $75B at market close on IPO day?
Share on X

Will Perplexity’s market cap be between $50B and $75B at market close on IPO day?

Closes December 31, 2027

Polymarket Price

18%YES
82%NO

Volume 24h

$6K

Liquidity

$573

Bid / Ask

7% / 21%

Spread

14.60pp

Expert Signal

14%

Bayesian YES estimate

vs market+0.0pp
confidence21%
methodensemble

Research Summary

Prediction markets currently price "Will Perplexity’s market cap be between $50B and $75B at market close on IPO day?" at 18% YES / 82% NO. In the last 24 hours, $6K has been traded. A Bayesian estimate puts the probability at 14%. The bid-ask spread is 14.60 percentage points. The market closes on December 31, 2027.

Cite this snapshot

ForecastMind (2026-03-31). "Will Perplexity’s market cap be between $50B and $75B at market close on IPO day?." Prediction market snapshot: YES 18%, NO 82%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/1115933

✦ AI Analysis

Synthesizes price, cross-venue gaps, Bayesian edge, and event context into a concise brief.

Price History

Export CSV

Price History

-5.7pp

Key Moments

First recorded

20% YES

Mar 30, 2026

Trough probability

14% YES — lowest in period

Mar 31, 2026

Current

14% YES (+0.0pp recent)

Mar 31, 2026

Order Book (YES)

Expected Value Calculator

%
1%Market: YES 18%99%
Buy YES@ 18¢
Edge

+2.6%

EV per $ wagered

Full Kelly0.5%
½ Kelly0.3%
Buy NO@ 82¢

-0.5%

EV per $ wagered

Buy YES—+2.6% EV per dollar wagered·Kelly 0.5%

EV = return on investment if your probability is correct. Kelly = optimal bankroll fraction (½ Kelly is a common conservative choice). Fees not included.

Backtest Strategy

50%

Enter when YES price ≤ this