ForecastMind
Markets/Will the Fed’s lower bound reach 0.25% or lower before 2027?
Share on X

Will the Fed’s lower bound reach 0.25% or lower before 2027?

Closes December 31, 2026

Polymarket Price

7%YES
94%NO

Volume 24h

$95

Liquidity

$9K

Bid / Ask

5% / 8%

Spread

2.20pp

Expert Signal

7%

Bayesian YES estimate

vs market+0.0pp
confidence21%
methodensemble

Research Summary

Prediction markets currently price "Will the Fed’s lower bound reach 0.25% or lower before 2027?" at 7% YES / 93% NO. In the last 24 hours, $95 has been traded. A Bayesian estimate puts the probability at 7%. The bid-ask spread is 2.20 percentage points. The market closes on December 31, 2026.

Cite this snapshot

ForecastMind (2026-03-31). "Will the Fed’s lower bound reach 0.25% or lower before 2027?." Prediction market snapshot: YES 7%, NO 93%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/690210

✦ AI Analysis

Synthesizes price, cross-venue gaps, Bayesian edge, and event context into a concise brief.

Price History

Export CSV

Price History

+1.8pp

Key Moments

First recorded

5% YES

Mar 29, 2026

Current

7% YES (-0.3pp recent)

Mar 30, 2026

Order Book (YES)

Expected Value Calculator

%
1%Market: YES 7%99%
Buy YES@ 7¢
Edge

+7.7%

EV per $ wagered

Full Kelly0.5%
½ Kelly0.3%
Buy NO@ 94¢

-0.5%

EV per $ wagered

Buy YES—+7.7% EV per dollar wagered·Kelly 0.5%

EV = return on investment if your probability is correct. Kelly = optimal bankroll fraction (½ Kelly is a common conservative choice). Fees not included.

Backtest Strategy

50%

Enter when YES price ≤ this