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Markets/Will the Fed’s lower bound reach 1.5% or lower before 2027?
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Will the Fed’s lower bound reach 1.5% or lower before 2027?

Closes December 31, 2026

Polymarket Price

9%YES
91%NO

Volume 24h

$25K

Liquidity

$10K

Bid / Ask

6% / 12%

Spread

6.00pp

Expert Signal

9%

Bayesian YES estimate

vs market+0.0pp
confidence21%
methodensemble

Research Summary

Prediction markets currently price "Will the Fed’s lower bound reach 1.5% or lower before 2027?" at 9% YES / 91% NO. In the last 24 hours, $25K has been traded. A Bayesian estimate puts the probability at 9%. The bid-ask spread is 6.00 percentage points. The market closes on December 31, 2026.

Cite this snapshot

ForecastMind (2026-03-31). "Will the Fed’s lower bound reach 1.5% or lower before 2027?." Prediction market snapshot: YES 9%, NO 91%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/690206

✦ AI Analysis

Synthesizes price, cross-venue gaps, Bayesian edge, and event context into a concise brief.

Price History

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Price History

+0.0pp

Key Moments

First recorded

11% YES

Mar 29, 2026

Current

11% YES (-1.5pp recent)

Mar 30, 2026

Order Book (YES)

Expected Value Calculator

%
1%Market: YES 9%99%
Buy YES@ 9¢

+0.0%

EV per $ wagered

Buy NO@ 91¢

+0.0%

EV per $ wagered

Your estimate matches the market price — no edge on either side.

EV = return on investment if your probability is correct. Kelly = optimal bankroll fraction (½ Kelly is a common conservative choice). Fees not included.

Backtest Strategy

50%

Enter when YES price ≤ this