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Markets/Will the US accuse Iran of Oslo Embassy attack?
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Will the US accuse Iran of Oslo Embassy attack?

Polymarket Price

0%YES
100%NO

Volume 24h

$10K

Liquidity

$0

Expert Signal

2%

Bayesian YES estimate

vs market+100.0pp
confidence21%
methodensemble

Research Summary

Prediction markets currently price "Will the US accuse Iran of Oslo Embassy attack?" at 0% YES / 100% NO. In the last 24 hours, $10K has been traded. A Bayesian estimate puts the probability at 2%.

Cite this snapshot

ForecastMind (2026-04-01). "Will the US accuse Iran of Oslo Embassy attack?." Prediction market snapshot: YES 0%, NO 100%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/1529737

Topic Intelligence

✦ AI Analysis

Synthesizes price, cross-venue gaps, Bayesian edge, and event context into a concise brief.

Price History

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Price History

-10.0pp

Key Moments

First recorded

27% YES

Mar 8, 2026

Biggest move: +9.5pp

18% → 27%

Mar 8, 2026

Current

17% YES (-1.0pp recent)

Mar 9, 2026

Order Book (YES)

Expected Value Calculator

%
1%Market: YES 1%99%
Buy YES@ 1¢

+0.0%

EV per $ wagered

Buy NO@ 99¢

+0.0%

EV per $ wagered

Your estimate matches the market price — no edge on either side.

EV = return on investment if your probability is correct. Kelly = optimal bankroll fraction (½ Kelly is a common conservative choice). Fees not included.

Backtest Strategy

50%

Enter when YES price ≤ this