Will UK strike Iran by April 30?
April
Consensus Probability
12%
Weak5%
Polymarket18% avg · 8 markets
Confidence is based on agreement between venues, number of confirming markets, and available liquidity. High disagreement or thin markets — interpret with caution.
Contributing Markets
| Venue | Market | YES | Volume | Role |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Polymarket | Will UK strike Iran by April 30? | 3% | $86K | standalone |
| Polymarket | Iran leadership change by April 30? | 22% | $19K | standalone |
| Polymarket | US x Iran meeting by April 30, 2026? | 47% | $15K | standalone |
| Polymarket | Will Turkey strike Iran by April 30? | 4% | $14K | standalone |
| Polymarket | Will UAE strike Iran by April 30? | 23% | $11K | standalone |
| Polymarket | US x Iran meeting by April 10, 2026? | 32% | $5K | standalone |
| Polymarket | Will any E.U. country strike Iran by April 30? | 5% | $2K | standalone |
| Polymarket | Will Bahrain strike Iran by April 30? | 9% | $290 | standalone |