Markets/Iran leadership change by April 30?

Iran leadership change by April 30?

Data as of Mar 23, 2026, 07:51 AM UTC

Closes December 31, 2026

Polymarket Price

34%YES

67%NO

Volume 24h

$50K

Liquidity

$77K

Bid / Ask

32% / 34%

Spread

2.00pp

Expert Signal

33%

Bayesian YES estimate

vs market+0.0pp

confidence21%

methodensemble

✦ AI Analysis

Synthesizes price, cross-venue gaps, Bayesian edge, and event context into a concise brief.

Price History

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Price History

-30.5pp

Key Moments

First recorded

64% YES

Mar 9, 2026

Trough probability

31% YES — lowest in period

Mar 21, 2026

Dropped below 50% — now favored NO

44%

Mar 9, 2026

Crossed 50% — now favored YES

51%

Mar 14, 2026

Crossed 50% — now favored YES

53%

Mar 15, 2026

Biggest move: -14.0pp

64% → 50%

Mar 9, 2026

Current

33% YES (+0.0pp recent)

Mar 23, 2026

Order Book (YES)

Expected Value Calculator

Your probability estimate

1%Market: YES 34%99%

Buy YES@ 34¢

Edge

+1.5%

EV per $ wagered

Full Kelly0.8%

½ Kelly0.4%

Buy NO@ 67¢

-0.8%

EV per $ wagered

Buy YES—+1.5% EV per dollar wagered·Kelly 0.8%

EV = return on investment if your probability is correct. Kelly = optimal bankroll fraction (½ Kelly is a common conservative choice). Fees not included.

Backtest Strategy

Entry threshold

50%

Enter when YES price ≤ this

From date

To date

Research Summary

Prediction markets currently price "Iran leadership change by April 30?" at 34% YES / 66% NO. In the last 24 hours, $50K has been traded. A Bayesian estimate puts the probability at 33%. The bid-ask spread is 2.00 percentage points. The market closes on December 31, 2026.

Cite this snapshot

ForecastMind (2026-03-23). "Iran leadership change by April 30?." Prediction market snapshot: YES 34%, NO 66%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/1535972