Will the Fed’s lower bound reach 0% or lower before 2027?

2027

Consensus Probability

Moderate58%

Polymarket7% avg · 12 markets

Confidence is based on agreement between venues, number of confirming markets, and available liquidity. Some spread between venues — treat as directional signal.

Outcome Breakdown

2.0%13%

1.5%12%

4.25%10%

1.75%9%

0.25%7%

0.5%6%

5.25%6%

4.5%5%

5.5%4%

4.75%4%

5.0%3%

Implied total (sum of outcomes)79%

Contributing Markets

Venue	Market	YES	Volume	Role
Polymarket	Will the Fed’s upper bound reach 5.25% or higher before 2027?(5.25%)	6%	$120K	child
Polymarket	Will the Fed’s lower bound reach 0.25% or lower before 2027?(0.25%)	7%	$113K	child
Polymarket	Will the Fed’s lower bound reach 0.5% or lower before 2027?(0.5%)	6%	$81K	child
Polymarket	Will the Fed’s upper bound reach 4.75% or higher before 2027?(4.75%)	4%	$60K	child
Polymarket	Will the Fed’s upper bound reach 5.5% or higher before 2027?(5.5%)	4%	$24K	child
Polymarket	Will the Fed’s lower bound reach 1.5% or lower before 2027?(1.5%)	12%	$24K	child
Polymarket	Will the Fed’s lower bound reach 2.0% or lower before 2027?(2.0%)	13%	$14K	child
Polymarket	Will the Fed’s upper bound reach 5.0% or higher before 2027?(5.0%)	3%	$386	child
Polymarket	Will the Fed’s lower bound reach 0% or lower before 2027?	6%	$222	standalone
Polymarket	Will the Fed’s upper bound reach 4.5% or higher before 2027?(4.5%)	5%	$91	child
Polymarket	Will the Fed’s upper bound reach 4.25% or higher before 2027?(4.25%)	10%	$75	child
Polymarket	Will the Fed’s lower bound reach 1.75% or lower before 2027?(1.75%)	9%	$60	child

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