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Markets/Will the Fed’s upper bound reach 4.25% or higher before 2027?
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Will the Fed’s upper bound reach 4.25% or higher before 2027?

Closes December 31, 2026

Polymarket Price

10%YES
90%NO

Volume 24h

$254

Liquidity

$4K

Bid / Ask

8% / 11%

Spread

3.20pp

Expert Signal

10%

Bayesian YES estimate

vs market+0.0pp
confidence21%
methodensemble

✦ AI Analysis

Synthesizes price, cross-venue gaps, Bayesian edge, and event context into a concise brief.

Event Distribution

Will the Fed’s lower bound reach 0% or lower before 2027?

2027

Full event →
1.25% or lower before 2027?
26%
2.0% or lower before 2027?
13%
1.5% or lower before 2027?
12%
4.25% or higher before 2027?
10%
1.75% or lower before 2027?
9%
0.5% or lower before 2027?
6%
0.25% or lower before 2027?
6%
0% or lower before 2027?
6%
4.5% or higher before 2027?
5%
5.25% or higher before 2027?
4%
5.5% or higher before 2027?
4%
4.75% or higher before 2027?
4%
5.0% or higher before 2027?
3%

13 related outcomes · highlighted = this market

Price History

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Price History

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Order Book (YES)

Expected Value Calculator

%
1%Market: YES 10%99%
Buy YES@ 10¢
Edge

+3.1%

EV per $ wagered

Full Kelly0.3%
½ Kelly0.2%
Buy NO@ 90¢

-0.3%

EV per $ wagered

Buy YES—+3.1% EV per dollar wagered·Kelly 0.3%

EV = return on investment if your probability is correct. Kelly = optimal bankroll fraction (½ Kelly is a common conservative choice). Fees not included.

Backtest Strategy

50%

Enter when YES price ≤ this

Research Summary

Prediction markets currently price "Will the Fed’s upper bound reach 4.25% or higher before 2027?" at 10% YES / 90% NO. In the last 24 hours, $254 has been traded. A Bayesian estimate puts the probability at 10%. The bid-ask spread is 3.20 percentage points. The market closes on December 31, 2026.

Cite this snapshot

ForecastMind (2026-03-29). "Will the Fed’s upper bound reach 4.25% or higher before 2027?." Prediction market snapshot: YES 10%, NO 90%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/690202

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