ForecastMind
Calibration/Compare

Polymarket vs Manifold — Accuracy Comparison

Not enough resolution data to compare polymarket vs manifold. Import historical resolutions via scripts/import_kalshi_resolutions.py.

polymarket

Mean Abs. Error

manifold

Mean Abs. Error

Small sample (0 matched markets). Cross-venue comparisons require the same event to be tracked on both venues AND subsequently resolve. More data accumulates over time.