Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30?
Closes June 30, 2026
ForecastMind sees this -0.9pp below current market price; market at 8% may be overpriced driven by ISR positive AGR → -1.0pp avg (n=64) (low confidence — limited signal data).
Signal breakdown
Polymarket Price
Volume 24h
$29K
Liquidity
$110K
Bid / Ask
7% / 8%
Spread
1.00pp
Expert Signal
8%
Bayesian YES estimate
Research Summary
Prediction markets currently price "Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30?" at 8% YES / 92% NO. In the last 24 hours, $29K has been traded. A Bayesian estimate puts the probability at 8%. The bid-ask spread is 1.00 percentage points. The market closes on June 30, 2026.
Cite this snapshot
ForecastMind (2026-04-13). "Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30?." Prediction market snapshot: YES 8%, NO 92%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/1090199
This event has 4 active outcome markets. December 31: 17%, June 30: 8%, May 31: 4%. Implied probability of none resolving YES: ~70%.
Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30?
Topic Intelligence
✦ AI Analysis
Synthesizes price, cross-venue gaps, Bayesian edge, and event context into a concise brief.
Price History
Export CSVPrice History
Key Moments
First recorded
7% YES
Apr 6, 2026
Current
8% YES (+0.0pp recent)
Apr 13, 2026
Order Book (YES)
Expected Value Calculator
+6.7%
EV per $ wagered
-0.5%
EV per $ wagered
EV = return on investment if your probability is correct. Kelly = optimal bankroll fraction (½ Kelly is a common conservative choice). Fees not included.
Backtest Strategy
Enter when YES price ≤ this