Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by May 31?
Closes May 31, 2026
ForecastMind sees this -0.9pp below current market price; market at 4% may be overpriced driven by ISR positive AGR → -1.0pp avg (n=64) (low confidence — limited signal data).
Signal breakdown
Polymarket Price
Volume 24h
$8K
Liquidity
$53K
Bid / Ask
4% / 5%
Spread
0.20pp
Expert Signal
4%
Bayesian YES estimate
Research Summary
Prediction markets currently price "Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by May 31?" at 5% YES / 95% NO. In the last 24 hours, $8K has been traded. A Bayesian estimate puts the probability at 4%. The bid-ask spread is 0.20 percentage points. The market closes on May 31, 2026.
Cite this snapshot
ForecastMind (2026-04-13). "Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by May 31?." Prediction market snapshot: YES 5%, NO 95%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/1707943
This event has 4 active outcome markets. December 31: 17%, June 30: 8%, May 31: 5%. Implied probability of none resolving YES: ~70%.
Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by May 31?
Topic Intelligence
✦ AI Analysis
Synthesizes price, cross-venue gaps, Bayesian edge, and event context into a concise brief.
Price History
Export CSVPrice History
Key Moments
First recorded
4% YES
Apr 6, 2026
Current
4% YES (+0.0pp recent)
Apr 13, 2026
Order Book (YES)
Expected Value Calculator
+9.9%
EV per $ wagered
-0.5%
EV per $ wagered
EV = return on investment if your probability is correct. Kelly = optimal bankroll fraction (½ Kelly is a common conservative choice). Fees not included.
Backtest Strategy
Enter when YES price ≤ this