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Markets/Will the Republican Party win the GA-04 House seat?
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Will the Republican Party win the GA-04 House seat?

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ForecastMind estimates 2% — market may be overpriced by 3pp vs our model · Macro fundamentals: -5.0pp

Market Price

5%YES

FM Estimate

2%↓3pp
NO95%
Vol 24h$5K
Liquidity$13K
Bid / Ask4% / 5%
Spread1.30pp
ClosesNov 3, 2026
Macro fundamentals-5.0pp
Historical patterns-1.0pp

medium confidence · 2 signals

Wikipedia Attention

Outcome Markets13 markets

This event has 13 active outcome markets. the Democratic Party: 95%, the Republican Party: 85%, the Democratic Party: 74%.

Democratic Party win the GA-04 House seat?
95%
Republican Party win the NC-03 House seat?
85%
Democratic Party win the VA-06 House seat?
74%
Democratic party win the House, the Democratic party wi
44%
Republican Party win the VA-06 House seat?
18%
Democratic party win the House, the Republican party wi
16%
Democratic Party win the NC-03 House seat?
14%
Democratic party win the House, the Republican party wi
11%

Republican Party win the GA-04 House seat?

5%
Republican party win the House, the Democratic party wi
3%
Democratic party win the House, the Democratic party wi
3%
Republican party win the House, the Democratic party wi
3%
Republican party win the House, the Republican party wi
2%

Price History · 30 days

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Price History

No historical data yet

✦ AI Analysis

Synthesizes price, cross-venue gaps, Bayesian edge, and event context into a concise brief.

Research Summary

Prediction markets currently price "Will the Republican Party win the GA-04 House seat?" at 5% YES / 95% NO. In the last 24 hours, $5K has been traded. A Bayesian estimate puts the probability at 5%. The bid-ask spread is 1.30pp. The market closes on November 3, 2026.

Cite this snapshot

ForecastMind (2026-04-22). "Will the Republican Party win the GA-04 House seat?." Prediction market snapshot: YES 5%, NO 95%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/1283184