ForecastMind
Markets/Kevin Warsh confirmed as Fed Chair by May 15?
Share on X

Kevin Warsh confirmed as Fed Chair by May 15?

Market Price

86%YES
14%NO

FM Estimate

81%
Vol 24h$27K
Liquidity$25K
Bid / Ask82% / 84%
Spread2.00pp
ClosesMay 15, 2026
Macro fundamentals-1.9pp
Historical patterns-1.0pp

low confidence · 2 signals

✦ Deep AI Analysis🔒 PRO

Synthesizes price, cross-venue gaps, Bayesian edge, and event context into a concise brief.

Unlock with Pro

Wikipedia Attention

Outcome Markets15 markets

15 deadline markets. Combined YES = 289% — 189pp excess suggests collective overpricing.

Kevin Warsh be confirmed as Fed Chair?

Kevin Warsh be confirmed as Fed Chair

98%
by June 30

Kevin Warsh confirmed as Fed Chair by June 30

95%

by May 15

Kevin Warsh confirmed as Fed Chair by May 15

86%

Price History · 30 days

Export CSV

Price History

MarketFM Estimate
-2.0pp
Cross-Venue Intelligence2 venues
VenueYES %vs Poly
Polymarket83%anchor
PredictIt

Research Summary

Prediction markets currently price "Kevin Warsh confirmed as Fed Chair by May 15?" at 86% YES / 14% NO. In the last 24 hours, $27K has been traded. A Bayesian estimate puts the probability at 84%. The bid-ask spread is 2.00pp. The market closes on May 15, 2026.

Cite this snapshot

ForecastMind (2026-04-25). "Kevin Warsh confirmed as Fed Chair by May 15?." Prediction market snapshot: YES 86%, NO 14%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/1300296