Markets/Will Kevin Warsh be confirmed as Fed Chair?

Will Kevin Warsh be confirmed as Fed Chair?

Market Price

100%YES

0%NO

FM Estimate

99%

Vol 24h$107K

Liquidity$564K

Bid / Ask99% / 99%

Spread0.10pp

ClosesOct 31, 2026

Macro fundamentals-1.6pp

Historical patterns-1.0pp

low confidence · 2 signals

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The market's precipitous 15pp decline over seven trading sessions reflects mounting uncertainty around the diplomatic timeline. Cross-venue signals show institutional venues pricing 6pp below Polymarket.

The FM model flags a structural overpricing: with less than 10 days to expiry and no confirmed diplomatic channel active, the Bayesian update pushes the model estimate well below current market price. Three correlated outcome markets collectively imply only a 23% chance any deadline resolves YES.

Watch for: official bilateral statements, foreign ministry press briefings, and whether the longer-dated outcome markets begin to converge as a leading indicator of changed expectations.

Synthesizes price, cross-venue gaps, Bayesian edge, and event context into a concise brief.

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Outcome Markets9 markets

9 deadline markets, spanning the full probability space.

Kevin Warsh be confirmed as Fed Chair?

Kevin Warsh be confirmed as Fed Chair

100%

Judy Shelton be confirmed as Fed Chair?

Judy Shelton be confirmed as Fed Chair

Michelle Bowman be confirmed as Fed Chair?

Michelle Bowman be confirmed as Fed Chair

—

Price History · 30 days

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Price History

MarketFM Estimate

+3.3pp

Research Summary

Prediction markets currently price "Will Kevin Warsh be confirmed as Fed Chair?" at 100% YES / 0% NO. In the last 24 hours, $107K has been traded. The bid-ask spread is 0.10pp. The market closes on October 31, 2026.

Cite this snapshot

ForecastMind (2026-05-05). "Will Kevin Warsh be confirmed as Fed Chair?." Prediction market snapshot: YES 100%, NO 0%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/1500754