Markets/Will Judy Shelton be confirmed as Fed Chair?

Will Judy Shelton be confirmed as Fed Chair?

Market Price

1%YES

99%NO

FM Estimate

Vol 24h$269K

Liquidity$332K

Bid / Ask0% / 0%

Spread0.10pp

ClosesOct 31, 2026

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The market's precipitous 15pp decline over seven trading sessions reflects mounting uncertainty around the diplomatic timeline. Cross-venue signals show institutional venues pricing 6pp below Polymarket.

The FM model flags a structural overpricing: with less than 10 days to expiry and no confirmed diplomatic channel active, the Bayesian update pushes the model estimate well below current market price. Three correlated outcome markets collectively imply only a 23% chance any deadline resolves YES.

Watch for: official bilateral statements, foreign ministry press briefings, and whether the longer-dated outcome markets begin to converge as a leading indicator of changed expectations.

Synthesizes price, cross-venue gaps, Bayesian edge, and event context into a concise brief.

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Wikipedia Attention

Outcome Markets7 markets

7 deadline markets, spanning the full probability space.

Kevin Warsh be confirmed as Fed Chair?

Kevin Warsh be confirmed as Fed Chair

100%

Judy Shelton be confirmed as Fed Chair?

Judy Shelton be confirmed as Fed Chair

Michelle Bowman be confirmed as Fed Chair?

Michelle Bowman be confirmed as Fed Chair

—

Price History · 30 days

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Price History

MarketFM Estimate

-0.8pp

Research Summary

Prediction markets currently price "Will Judy Shelton be confirmed as Fed Chair?" at 1% YES / 99% NO. In the last 24 hours, $269K has been traded. The bid-ask spread is 0.10pp. The market closes on October 31, 2026.

Cite this snapshot

ForecastMind (2026-05-05). "Will Judy Shelton be confirmed as Fed Chair?." Prediction market snapshot: YES 1%, NO 99%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/1500755