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Will Harvey Weinstein be confirmed to have visited Epstein’s island?

Closes June 30, 2026

Polymarket Price

8%YES
92%NO

Volume 24h

$373

Liquidity

$17K

Bid / Ask

7% / 9%

Spread

2.00pp

Expert Signal

9%

Bayesian YES estimate

vs market+0.0pp
confidence21%
methodensemble

Event Distribution

Will Jay-Z be confirmed to have visited Epstein’s island?

Full event →
confirmed to have visited Epstein’s island?
32%
confirmed to have visited Epstein’s island?
14%
confirmed to have visited Epstein’s island?
12%
confirmed to have visited Epstein’s island?
12%
confirmed to have visited Epstein’s island?
8%
confirmed to have visited Epstein’s island?
8%
confirmed to have visited Epstein’s island?
8%
confirmed to have visited Epstein’s island?
8%
confirmed to have visited Epstein’s island?
6%
confirmed to have visited Epstein’s island?
5%
confirmed to have visited Epstein’s island?
4%
confirmed to have visited Epstein’s island?
4%
confirmed to have visited Epstein’s island?
4%
confirmed to have visited Epstein’s island?
2%

14 related outcomes · highlighted = this market

Price History

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Price History

+0.0pp

Key Moments

First recorded

9% YES

Mar 29, 2026

Current

9% YES (+0.0pp recent)

Mar 29, 2026

Order Book (YES)

Expected Value Calculator

%
1%Market: YES 8%99%
Buy YES@ 8¢

+0.0%

EV per $ wagered

Buy NO@ 92¢

+0.0%

EV per $ wagered

Your estimate matches the market price — no edge on either side.

EV = return on investment if your probability is correct. Kelly = optimal bankroll fraction (½ Kelly is a common conservative choice). Fees not included.

Backtest Strategy

50%

Enter when YES price ≤ this

Research Summary

Prediction markets currently price "Will Harvey Weinstein be confirmed to have visited Epstein’s island?" at 8% YES / 92% NO. In the last 24 hours, $373 has been traded. A Bayesian estimate puts the probability at 9%. The bid-ask spread is 2.00 percentage points. The market closes on June 30, 2026.

Cite this snapshot

ForecastMind (2026-03-30). "Will Harvey Weinstein be confirmed to have visited Epstein’s island?." Prediction market snapshot: YES 8%, NO 92%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/1370739

✦ AI Analysis

Synthesizes price, cross-venue gaps, Bayesian edge, and event context into a concise brief.