Markets/Will Viktor Orbán be the next leader out before 2027?

Will Viktor Orbán be the next leader out before 2027?

Market Price

98%YES

2%NO

FM Estimate

98.1%

Vol 24h$7K

Liquidity$43K

Bid / Ask98% / 98%

Spread0.40pp

ClosesDec 31, 2026

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The market's precipitous 15pp decline over seven trading sessions reflects mounting uncertainty around the diplomatic timeline. Cross-venue signals show institutional venues pricing 6pp below Polymarket.

The FM model flags a structural overpricing: with less than 10 days to expiry and no confirmed diplomatic channel active, the Bayesian update pushes the model estimate well below current market price. Three correlated outcome markets collectively imply only a 23% chance any deadline resolves YES.

Watch for: official bilateral statements, foreign ministry press briefings, and whether the longer-dated outcome markets begin to converge as a leading indicator of changed expectations.

Synthesizes price, cross-venue gaps, Bayesian edge, and event context into a concise brief.

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Wikipedia Attention

Outcome Markets25 markets

25 deadline markets. Combined YES = 102% — 2pp excess suggests collective overpricing.

Viktor Orbán be the next leader out before 20

Viktor Orbán be the next leader out before 2027

98%

Keir Starmer be the next leader out before 20

Keir Starmer be the next leader out before 2027

no listed leader be out before 2027?

no listed leader be out before 2027

Price History · 30 days

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Price History

MarketFM EstimateFM -19.2pp

+36.2pp

Research Summary

Prediction markets currently price "Will Viktor Orbán be the next leader out before 2027?" at 98% YES / 2% NO. In the last 24 hours, $7K has been traded. The bid-ask spread is 0.40pp. The market closes on December 31, 2026.

Cite this snapshot

ForecastMind (2026-05-05). "Will Viktor Orbán be the next leader out before 2027?." Prediction market snapshot: YES 98%, NO 2%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/1485232