Markets/Will Viktor Orbán be the next leader out before 2027?

Will Viktor Orbán be the next leader out before 2027?

Data as of Mar 21, 2026, 03:09 AM UTC

Closes December 31, 2026

Polymarket Price

40%YES

60%NO

Volume 24h

$760

Liquidity

$13K

Bid / Ask

39% / 42%

Spread

3.00pp

Expert Signal

43%

Bayesian YES estimate

vs market+0.0pp

confidence0%

methodmarket

✦ AI Analysis

Synthesizes price, cross-venue gaps, Bayesian edge, and event context into a concise brief.

Event Distribution

Will no listed leader be out before 2027?

2027

Full event →

24 related outcomes · highlighted = this market

Price History

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Price History

+5.0pp

Key Moments

First recorded

34% YES

Mar 17, 2026

Trough probability

28% YES — lowest in period

Mar 17, 2026

Current

39% YES (+0.0pp recent)

Mar 19, 2026

Order Book (YES)

Expected Value Calculator

Your probability estimate

1%Market: YES 40%99%

Buy YES@ 40¢

+0.0%

EV per $ wagered

Buy NO@ 60¢

+0.0%

EV per $ wagered

Your estimate matches the market price — no edge on either side.

EV = return on investment if your probability is correct. Kelly = optimal bankroll fraction (½ Kelly is a common conservative choice). Fees not included.

Backtest Strategy

Entry threshold

50%

Enter when YES price ≤ this

From date

To date

Research Summary

Prediction markets currently price "Will Viktor Orbán be the next leader out before 2027?" at 40% YES / 60% NO. In the last 24 hours, $760 has been traded. A Bayesian estimate puts the probability at 43%. The bid-ask spread is 3.00 percentage points. The market closes on December 31, 2026.

Cite this snapshot

ForecastMind (2026-03-21). "Will Viktor Orbán be the next leader out before 2027?." Prediction market snapshot: YES 40%, NO 60%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/1485232