Markets/Will Keir Starmer be the next leader out before 2027?

Will Keir Starmer be the next leader out before 2027?

Data as of Mar 23, 2026, 01:19 PM UTC

Closes December 31, 2026

Polymarket Price

5%YES

95%NO

Volume 24h

$82K

Liquidity

$15K

Expert Signal

Bayesian YES estimate

vs market+0.0pp

confidence0%

methodmarket

✦ AI Analysis

Synthesizes price, cross-venue gaps, Bayesian edge, and event context into a concise brief.

Event Distribution

Will no listed leader be out before 2027?

2027

Full event →

24 related outcomes · highlighted = this market

Price History

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Price History

-3.8pp

Key Moments

First recorded

9% YES

Mar 14, 2026

Trough probability

1% YES — lowest in period

Mar 16, 2026

Current

5% YES (+0.0pp recent)

Mar 22, 2026

Order Book (YES)

Expected Value Calculator

Your probability estimate

1%Market: YES 5%99%

Buy YES@ 5¢

-3.8%

EV per $ wagered

Buy NO@ 95¢

Edge

+0.2%

EV per $ wagered

Full Kelly3.8%

½ Kelly1.9%

Buy NO—+0.2% EV per dollar wagered·Kelly 3.8%

EV = return on investment if your probability is correct. Kelly = optimal bankroll fraction (½ Kelly is a common conservative choice). Fees not included.

Backtest Strategy

Entry threshold

50%

Enter when YES price ≤ this

From date

To date

Research Summary

Prediction markets currently price "Will Keir Starmer be the next leader out before 2027?" at 5% YES / 95% NO. In the last 24 hours, $82K has been traded. A Bayesian estimate puts the probability at 4%. The market closes on December 31, 2026.

Cite this snapshot

ForecastMind (2026-03-23). "Will Keir Starmer be the next leader out before 2027?." Prediction market snapshot: YES 5%, NO 95%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/1485219