Markets/Will Vladimir Putin be the next leader out before 2027?

Will Vladimir Putin be the next leader out before 2027?

Data as of Mar 21, 2026, 01:47 AM UTC

Closes December 31, 2026

Polymarket Price

3%YES

97%NO

Volume 24h

$245K

Liquidity

$11K

Bid / Ask

4% / 5%

Spread

0.70pp

Expert Signal

Bayesian YES estimate

vs market+0.0pp

confidence0%

methodmarket

✦ AI Analysis

Synthesizes price, cross-venue gaps, Bayesian edge, and event context into a concise brief.

Event Distribution

Will no listed leader be out before 2027?

2027

Full event →

24 related outcomes · highlighted = this market

Price History

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Price History

+1.8pp

Key Moments

First recorded

2% YES

Mar 15, 2026

Current

3% YES (-0.7pp recent)

Mar 21, 2026

Order Book (YES)

Expected Value Calculator

Your probability estimate

1%Market: YES 3%99%

Buy YES@ 3¢

-11.8%

EV per $ wagered

Buy NO@ 97¢

Edge

+0.4%

EV per $ wagered

Full Kelly11.8%

½ Kelly5.9%

Buy NO—+0.4% EV per dollar wagered·Kelly 11.8%

EV = return on investment if your probability is correct. Kelly = optimal bankroll fraction (½ Kelly is a common conservative choice). Fees not included.

Backtest Strategy

Entry threshold

50%

Enter when YES price ≤ this

From date

To date

Research Summary

Prediction markets currently price "Will Vladimir Putin be the next leader out before 2027?" at 3% YES / 97% NO. In the last 24 hours, $245K has been traded. A Bayesian estimate puts the probability at 3%. The bid-ask spread is 0.70 percentage points. The market closes on December 31, 2026.

Cite this snapshot

ForecastMind (2026-03-21). "Will Vladimir Putin be the next leader out before 2027?." Prediction market snapshot: YES 3%, NO 97%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/1485222