Markets/Will Emmanuel Macron be the next leader out before 2027?

Will Emmanuel Macron be the next leader out before 2027?

Data as of Mar 21, 2026, 10:20 AM UTC

Closes December 31, 2026

Polymarket Price

2%YES

99%NO

Volume 24h

$215

Liquidity

$13K

✦ AI Analysis

Synthesizes price, cross-venue gaps, Bayesian edge, and event context into a concise brief.

Price History

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Price History

+0.7pp

Key Moments

First recorded

1% YES

Mar 15, 2026

Current

2% YES (+0.0pp recent)

Mar 20, 2026

Order Book (YES)

Expected Value Calculator

Your probability estimate

1%Market: YES 2%99%

Buy YES@ 2¢

Edge

+33.3%

EV per $ wagered

Full Kelly0.5%

½ Kelly0.3%

Buy NO@ 99¢

-0.5%

EV per $ wagered

Buy YES—+33.3% EV per dollar wagered·Kelly 0.5%

EV = return on investment if your probability is correct. Kelly = optimal bankroll fraction (½ Kelly is a common conservative choice). Fees not included.

Backtest Strategy

Entry threshold

50%

Enter when YES price ≤ this

From date

To date

Research Summary

Prediction markets currently price "Will Emmanuel Macron be the next leader out before 2027?" at 2% YES / 98% NO. In the last 24 hours, $215 has been traded. The market closes on December 31, 2026.

Cite this snapshot

ForecastMind (2026-03-21). "Will Emmanuel Macron be the next leader out before 2027?." Prediction market snapshot: YES 2%, NO 98%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/1485211

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