ForecastMind
Markets/Flames vs. Avalanche
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Flames vs. Avalanche

Closes March 31, 2026

Polymarket Price

24%YES
77%NO

Volume 24h

$643K

Liquidity

$568K

Bid / Ask

23% / 24%

Spread

1.00pp

Expert Signal

24%

Bayesian YES estimate

vs market+0.0pp
confidence21%
methodensemble

Event Distribution

Flames vs. Avalanche

Full event →
Flames vs. Avalanche: O/U 4.5
78%
Flames vs. Avalanche: O/U 5.5
57%
Flames vs. Avalanche: O/U 6.5
45%
Flames vs. Avalanche: O/U 7.5
26%
Flames vs. Avalanche
23%

5 related outcomes · highlighted = this market

Price History

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Price History

+1.0pp

Key Moments

First recorded

23% YES

Mar 30, 2026

Current

24% YES (+1.0pp recent)

Mar 30, 2026

Order Book (YES)

Expected Value Calculator

%
1%Market: YES 24%99%
Buy YES@ 24¢
Edge

+2.1%

EV per $ wagered

Full Kelly0.7%
½ Kelly0.3%
Buy NO@ 77¢

-0.7%

EV per $ wagered

Buy YES—+2.1% EV per dollar wagered·Kelly 0.7%

EV = return on investment if your probability is correct. Kelly = optimal bankroll fraction (½ Kelly is a common conservative choice). Fees not included.

Backtest Strategy

50%

Enter when YES price ≤ this

Research Summary

Prediction markets currently price "Flames vs. Avalanche" at 24% YES / 76% NO. In the last 24 hours, $643K has been traded. A Bayesian estimate puts the probability at 24%. The bid-ask spread is 1.00 percentage points. The market closes on March 31, 2026.

Cite this snapshot

ForecastMind (2026-03-30). "Flames vs. Avalanche." Prediction market snapshot: YES 24%, NO 76%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/1492906

✦ AI Analysis

Synthesizes price, cross-venue gaps, Bayesian edge, and event context into a concise brief.