Market Closed
This market has resolved and is no longer trading. Prices shown are the final recorded values.
Will La U win the third most seats in the 2026 Colombian Chamber of Representatives election?
Closed March 8, 2026
Polymarket Price
Volume 24h
$373K
Liquidity
$825
Bid / Ask
0% / 10%
Spread
10.30pp
Expert Signal
5%
Bayesian YES estimate
✦ AI Analysis
Synthesizes price, cross-venue gaps, Bayesian edge, and event context into a concise brief.
Price History
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Key Moments
First recorded
0% YES
Mar 27, 2026
Biggest move: +6.4pp
6% → 12%
Mar 28, 2026
Peak probability
12% YES — highest in period
Mar 28, 2026
Current
6% YES (-1.1pp recent)
Mar 28, 2026
Order Book (YES)
Expected Value Calculator
-4.8%
EV per $ wagered
+0.3%
EV per $ wagered
EV = return on investment if your probability is correct. Kelly = optimal bankroll fraction (½ Kelly is a common conservative choice). Fees not included.
Backtest Strategy
Enter when YES price ≤ this
Research Summary
Prediction markets currently price "Will La U win the third most seats in the 2026 Colombian Chamber of Representatives election?" at 5% YES / 95% NO. In the last 24 hours, $373K has been traded. A Bayesian estimate puts the probability at 5%. The bid-ask spread is 10.30 percentage points. The market closes on March 8, 2026.
Cite this snapshot
ForecastMind (2026-03-29). "Will La U win the third most seats in the 2026 Colombian Chamber of Representatives election?." Prediction market snapshot: YES 5%, NO 95%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/1501211
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