Will Arsenal reach the UEFA Champions League semifinal?
Closes May 7, 2026
Polymarket Price
Volume 24h
$22K
Liquidity
$54K
Bid / Ask
90% / 91%
Spread
1.00pp
Expert Signal
91%
Bayesian YES estimate
Research Summary
Prediction markets currently price "Will Arsenal reach the UEFA Champions League semifinal?" at 91% YES / 9% NO. In the last 24 hours, $22K has been traded. A Bayesian estimate puts the probability at 91%. The bid-ask spread is 1.00 percentage points. The market closes on May 7, 2026.
Cite this snapshot
ForecastMind (2026-04-15). "Will Arsenal reach the UEFA Champions League semifinal?." Prediction market snapshot: YES 91%, NO 9%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/1540840
This event has 4 active outcome markets. Arsenal reach the UEFA Champions League semif: 91%, Bayern München reach the UEFA Champions Leagu: 86%, Real Madrid reach the UEFA Champions League s: 16%.
Arsenal reach the UEFA Champions League semifinal?
Topic Intelligence
✦ AI Analysis
Synthesizes price, cross-venue gaps, Bayesian edge, and event context into a concise brief.
Price History
Export CSVPrice History
Key Moments
First recorded
91% YES
Apr 14, 2026
Current
91% YES (+0.0pp recent)
Apr 15, 2026
Order Book (YES)
Expected Value Calculator
+0.6%
EV per $ wagered
-5.3%
EV per $ wagered
EV = return on investment if your probability is correct. Kelly = optimal bankroll fraction (½ Kelly is a common conservative choice). Fees not included.
Backtest Strategy
Enter when YES price ≤ this