Will Real Madrid reach the UEFA Champions League semifinal?
Closes May 7, 2026
Polymarket Price
Volume 24h
$15K
Liquidity
$83K
Bid / Ask
14% / 16%
Spread
2.00pp
Expert Signal
15%
Bayesian YES estimate
Research Summary
Prediction markets currently price "Will Real Madrid reach the UEFA Champions League semifinal?" at 16% YES / 84% NO. In the last 24 hours, $15K has been traded. A Bayesian estimate puts the probability at 15%. The bid-ask spread is 2.00 percentage points. The market closes on May 7, 2026.
Cite this snapshot
ForecastMind (2026-04-15). "Will Real Madrid reach the UEFA Champions League semifinal?." Prediction market snapshot: YES 16%, NO 84%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/1540848
This event has 4 active outcome markets. Arsenal reach the UEFA Champions League semif: 91%, Bayern München reach the UEFA Champions Leagu: 86%, Real Madrid reach the UEFA Champions League s: 16%.
Real Madrid reach the UEFA Champions League semifinal?
Topic Intelligence
✦ AI Analysis
Synthesizes price, cross-venue gaps, Bayesian edge, and event context into a concise brief.
Price History
Export CSVPrice History
Key Moments
First recorded
16% YES
Apr 14, 2026
Current
15% YES (-0.5pp recent)
Apr 15, 2026
Order Book (YES)
Expected Value Calculator
+3.2%
EV per $ wagered
-0.6%
EV per $ wagered
EV = return on investment if your probability is correct. Kelly = optimal bankroll fraction (½ Kelly is a common conservative choice). Fees not included.
Backtest Strategy
Enter when YES price ≤ this