Market Closed
This market has resolved and is no longer trading. Prices shown are the final recorded values.
Capitals vs. Penguins
Closed April 11, 2026
Polymarket Price
Volume 24h
$953K
Liquidity
$479K
Bid / Ask
59% / 60%
Spread
1.00pp
Expert Signal
59%
Bayesian YES estimate
Research Summary
Prediction markets currently price "Capitals vs. Penguins" at 57% YES / 43% NO. In the last 24 hours, $953K has been traded. A Bayesian estimate puts the probability at 59%. The bid-ask spread is 1.00 percentage points. The market closes on April 11, 2026.
Cite this snapshot
ForecastMind (2026-04-11). "Capitals vs. Penguins." Prediction market snapshot: YES 57%, NO 43%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/1598493
This event has 5 active outcome markets. Capitals vs. Penguins: 57%, Capitals vs. Penguins: O/U 4.5: 56%, Capitals vs. Penguins: O/U 5.5: 30%.
Capitals vs. Penguins
Topic Intelligence
✦ AI Analysis
Synthesizes price, cross-venue gaps, Bayesian edge, and event context into a concise brief.
Price History
Export CSVPrice History
Key Moments
First recorded
56% YES
Apr 11, 2026
Current
60% YES (+2.0pp recent)
Apr 11, 2026
Order Book (YES)
Expected Value Calculator
-0.9%
EV per $ wagered
+1.2%
EV per $ wagered
EV = return on investment if your probability is correct. Kelly = optimal bankroll fraction (½ Kelly is a common conservative choice). Fees not included.
Backtest Strategy
Enter when YES price ≤ this