ForecastMind

Market Closed

This market has resolved and is no longer trading. Prices shown are the final recorded values.

Markets/Capitals vs. Penguins
Share on X

Capitals vs. Penguins

Closed April 11, 2026

Polymarket Price

57%YES
43%NO

Volume 24h

$953K

Liquidity

$479K

Bid / Ask

59% / 60%

Spread

1.00pp

Expert Signal

59%

Bayesian YES estimate

vs market+0.0pp
confidence21%
methodensemble

Research Summary

Prediction markets currently price "Capitals vs. Penguins" at 57% YES / 43% NO. In the last 24 hours, $953K has been traded. A Bayesian estimate puts the probability at 59%. The bid-ask spread is 1.00 percentage points. The market closes on April 11, 2026.

Cite this snapshot

ForecastMind (2026-04-11). "Capitals vs. Penguins." Prediction market snapshot: YES 57%, NO 43%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/1598493

Outcome Markets5 markets

This event has 5 active outcome markets. Capitals vs. Penguins: 57%, Capitals vs. Penguins: O/U 4.5: 56%, Capitals vs. Penguins: O/U 5.5: 30%.

Topic Intelligence

✦ AI Analysis

Synthesizes price, cross-venue gaps, Bayesian edge, and event context into a concise brief.

Price History

Export CSV

Price History

+3.0pp

Key Moments

First recorded

56% YES

Apr 11, 2026

Current

60% YES (+2.0pp recent)

Apr 11, 2026

Order Book (YES)

Expected Value Calculator

%
1%Market: YES 57%99%
Buy YES@ 57¢

-0.9%

EV per $ wagered

Buy NO@ 43¢
Edge

+1.2%

EV per $ wagered

Full Kelly0.9%
½ Kelly0.4%
Buy NO+1.2% EV per dollar wagered·Kelly 0.9%

EV = return on investment if your probability is correct. Kelly = optimal bankroll fraction (½ Kelly is a common conservative choice). Fees not included.

Backtest Strategy

50%

Enter when YES price ≤ this