Markets/Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by April 30?

Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by April 30?

Data as of Apr 5, 2026, 07:56 PM UTC

Closes April 30, 2026

ForecastMind Intelligence Score

Low confidence · 1 signal

7%FIS

Markets appear correctly priced with macro signals showing BTC +0.1% ↑, ETH -0.4% ↓, S&P +1.0% ↑ (low confidence — limited signal data).

Signal breakdown

MacroBTC +0.1% ↑, ETH -0.4% ↓, S&P +1.0% ↑

+0.3pp

Pre-computed · refreshes every 6h05:44 PM

Polymarket Price

8%YES

92%NO

Volume 24h

$54K

Liquidity

$24K

Bid / Ask

7% / 9%

Spread

1.70pp

Expert Signal

Bayesian YES estimate

vs market+0.0pp

confidence21%

methodensemble

Research Summary

Prediction markets currently price "Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by April 30?" at 8% YES / 92% NO. In the last 24 hours, $54K has been traded. A Bayesian estimate puts the probability at 8%. The bid-ask spread is 1.70 percentage points. The market closes on April 30, 2026.

Cite this snapshot

ForecastMind (2026-04-05). "Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by April 30?." Prediction market snapshot: YES 8%, NO 92%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/1651389

Outcome Markets2 markets

This event has 2 active outcome markets. December 31: 40%, April 30: 8%. Implied probability of none resolving YES: ~52%.