Markets/Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by December 31?

Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by December 31?

Data as of Apr 5, 2026, 06:23 PM UTC

Closes December 31, 2026

ForecastMind Intelligence Score

Low confidence · 1 signal

42%FIS

Markets appear correctly priced with macro signals showing ETH -0.4% ↓, S&P +1.0% ↑ (low confidence — limited signal data).

Signal breakdown

MacroETH -0.4% ↓, S&P +1.0% ↑

+0.3pp

Live compute06:23 PM

Polymarket Price

42%YES

59%NO

Volume 24h

$24K

Liquidity

$20K

Bid / Ask

41% / 42%

Spread

1.00pp

Expert Signal

42%

Bayesian YES estimate

vs market+0.0pp

confidence21%

methodensemble

Research Summary

Prediction markets currently price "Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by December 31?" at 42% YES / 58% NO. In the last 24 hours, $24K has been traded. A Bayesian estimate puts the probability at 42%. The bid-ask spread is 1.00 percentage points. The market closes on December 31, 2026.

Cite this snapshot

ForecastMind (2026-04-05). "Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by December 31?." Prediction market snapshot: YES 42%, NO 58%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/1811265

Outcome Markets2 markets

This event has 2 active outcome markets. December 31: 42%, April 30: 6%. Implied probability of none resolving YES: ~52%.